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Oh noes! Bias!

After compiling data from more than 20 ‘œfirst’ or ‘œexclusive’ reviews, I have found that the final score given is 6% higher than average. Even when the extremely off-centre reviews are removed, and the average score of each publication is accounted for, there remains more than a 4.5% discrepancy.

In the data shown below I have tried to find as many ‘œfirst’ reviews as possible from recent years (something, as best I could find, hasn’t been done before). Obviously I can’t find them all, and equally obviously I am no master statistician. However, the results speak for themselves. If you just take the scores given and subtract the average score that game got, you find the early reviews score an average of 5.88% higher.

Removing Mario Party 8s review (which was given an almost 30% higher-than-average review from GamePro) the average increase remains at just under 5%. Unsatisfied it was this easy, my next step was to factor in if these publications generally reviewed games higher.

If OXM scored games much higher on average, it would explain their high exclusive review scores. Subtracting the average difference makes a surprisingly small difference. The bias, and I hesitate to use that word, remains just under 5%.

Clearly we’re not dealing with any bank-breakingly corrupt pay-offs. If corruption was half as rampant as many like to think, I have a feeling the difference would be much higher. It still can’t be ignored. Almost universally the first review, being billed as ‘œexclusive’ or otherwise, is higher.

It could be small scale shady dealings. You give me 3 points more and we’ll pay for advertising. But I feel, perhaps a touch naively, it’s much simpler. From talking to people and from my own experience, if you are writing the exclusive first review of a game you are going to having a rather unique experience. You do not have anybody else’s experiences or thoughts to look at or bounce your own off. You miss out on other people’s complaints and criticisms of things that you don’t notice. You also get a much fresher experience, untainted by reading a thousand other reviews telling you every detail you wish you could find out for yourself.

No matter how good of an explanation that may be, it’s not excusable. People turn to reviews for guidance. If you are reviewing a game and aren’t finding all the bugs and niggling flaws others find, are you doing a fair job? The debate surrounding this could go on for a while, so I’ll not go on about it more here.

The data I’ve compiled is available for your downloading pleasure here (in Open Office Calc format) and you are very welcome to rip it apart, build on it and/or fix errors. There’s much more that could be done (Is there an average tendency for later reviews to score lower? How does a publication’s standard deviation of scores come into play?) and I look forward to seeing some interesting findings.

Data gathered via Google, GameStats, GameRankings, MetaCritic and Wikipedia

About the author
When not complaining on the internet as Nukezilla's Editor in Chief, John is usually either in the UK or New Jersey enjoying gadgets, beer and the depressing weather. He has a personal blog on Tumblr if you're interested in that sort of thing.
Categorised as Editorial, Article.
Tags: bias, exclusive, journalism, OXM, Review, score
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Comments


PY Says:

It’s not really as surprising as it seems. It’s very easy to get swayed by reviews, relatively minor issues you’d never normally have thought were important suddenly seem a lot more so, when you put them in the same context as another review.

Maybe I’m just optimistic, but I see this more of an example of how easily people are swayed by opinion than any possible shady dealings. Maybe the first review is the MOST honest, not the least.


TheGyro Says:

Am I the only one who is kinda releived that the figure is only around 5%? I had always assumed corporate bullshit was more common.
This almost proves it to be no existant. 5% is enough to be a random figure.

Oh well. Time to take the foil hat off, methinks. Maybe I *could* do with some sunshine…


Kevin Says:

Kevin Says:

@The@TheGyro: You don’t seem to understand how statistics work. The number 5 is not enough to determine whether it’s random or not, the standard deviation is needed and if 5 > the standard deviation, then it can be determined either way.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_deviation


Hopper Says:

Really? You compiled data from TWENTY articles? You’re going to have to do a lot better than that to impress me.


Mark "junglistgamer" Says:

Although it’s complete speculation on my part, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a correlation between preview coverage and these higher reviews. Not necessarily in an underhanded or corrupt way, just that I imagine the kind of publications that get access to exclusive reviews have probably been doing a lot of preview coverage on a given game as well. If you’ve been constantly exposed to the PR surrounding a game, you may end up giving something a slightly higher score as a result.


bg93 Says:

I see your point but look at, say, inFamous. Great game, 9.0 by most reviews but then later reviews undermark it to a 7. late review aren’t always more reliable. Uncharted 2 is raking in 10s now. Doesn’t mean it doesn’t deserve a 10. But the article is still true, which is why I READ reviews instead of a score.


Wex Says:

MATHS. JOURNALISM.


player66 Says:

Interesting article. It’s great to see all of the data laid out like that. I think lots of us have been thinking this was true, but the data doesn’t lie.


Nintendoll Says:

@Hopper

Unfortunately, most of us here at NG do other things besides write for the site. Due to time constraints, 20 was the doable number. If you feel like this isn’t a large enough sample, you can take Wardrox’s research and add your own to it to increase the accuracy. That’s why he posted all of his research: so people could take it one step further :)


name Says:

its quite obvious why.
most companys wont let you review their games at a certain time unless your willing to give it a certain score.
like MGS4 or batman arkham asylum.
that and most sites get paid off for their reviews.
how people can even think, let alone write, let alone discuss on the internet giving halo ODST over a 8.
these people either need their head examined or stop being payed under the table!


Citizen Erased Says:

Pretty interesting data.
Whenever I’ve read an “exclusive” review I’ve usually taken it with a grain of salt anyway, perhaps even subtracting around 5 or 6% from the score in my head.
It’s great to see it all laid out like this though.

Journalism and all that.


Riceboy Says:

this is partly the reason i stopped buying printed games media. Official Playstation Magazine UK was particualary responsible for this. – cash for the exclusive, then being extra nice to the publisher to keep a good relationship.

BUT BUT BUT!! you could say its not corruption/capitalism whatever, but that people are influenced by others opinions. for example pitchfork.com <— music magazine site, always posts the review after each album has been sat on metacritic for a while – then tends to go with the status quo. – being insecure about what the readership will agree with, and sitting on it – is as much bad journalism as taking the exclusive.

So yeah, really interesting article. statistically confirmed me suspicions.

(^^ holy shit there is an unintended status quo pun in there. eurgh i need a shower)


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